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Old 04-19-2018, 12:19 PM   #1226
drjarhead
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IT stocks got a double whammy today.

TSM (Taiwan Semis) said they were down due to poor iPhone sales in China.

This is hitting the entire sector.

Home builder stocks are down on higher lumber, higher interest rates, lack of buildable lots, labor shortage and some other pressure. I expect that the bad winter also had adverse effects so I think they'll bounce back once they bottom

Financials are hanging in.
Energy was up earlier but back down some, essentially level.

Overall, stocks are showing signs of rolling over.

Risk is to the downside IMO. I would be cautious buying right now. Better entry points coming, I expect.
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Old 04-19-2018, 09:52 PM   #1227
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Sold off my entire position in COP early today.
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Old 04-19-2018, 11:28 PM   #1228
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Quote:
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Sold off my entire position in COP early today.
Why?
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Old 04-20-2018, 06:41 AM   #1229
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It finally climbed to the point where I was able to turn a profit on every share I owned. And I wanted to move the $ I had tied up in it to other positions in my portfolio that are performing much better. Specifically MA, but I also added a little to my AAPL since it was under some pressure yesterday.
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Old 04-20-2018, 10:28 AM   #1230
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jabes0623 View Post
It finally climbed to the point where I was able to turn a profit on every share I owned. And I wanted to move the $ I had tied up in it to other positions in my portfolio that are performing much better. Specifically MA, but I also added a little to my AAPL since it was under some pressure yesterday.
Just wondered.

Chart on it said, SELL, SELL, SELL!

LOL

Valuation was quite excessive also.
Shit earnings, shit growth, shit dividend.

Good time to get out.

I don't think AAPL is done going down yet but it's looking like a better price today. That's a tough one to call a bottom on.
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Old 04-20-2018, 05:15 PM   #1231
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S&P @ 2580 for a short term bottom.

Maybe some good news will bounce us back up sooner but that's how it is looking to me.

Obviously, individual stocks and even sectors can act differently.


AAPL is still not done going down, IMHO.
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Old 04-20-2018, 10:28 PM   #1232
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I am actively going to start trimming to get to 10-20% cash. Thinking about moving to utah and having more money in cash will make me feel better as oh shit money.
Deciding on what I should trim or dump.
Top holdings
- FB - 11%
- NFLX - 11%
- NVDA - 7.5%
- AMZN 7.5%
- MSFT - 7% (want to buy more)
- GOOG - 5.26%
APPL - 5.23%
Jazz - 4.91%
CRM - 5.22%
SQ - 4.29%
JPM - 3.72%
C - 3.51%
GS - 3.31%
Cash = 5%.
got tired after there.

some take aways. I own too much tech. Tech has grown much better than my non tech holdings like ABBV and BMY.
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Old 04-21-2018, 10:09 AM   #1233
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yuik View Post
I am actively going to start trimming to get to 10-20% cash. Thinking about moving to utah and having more money in cash will make me feel better as oh shit money.
Deciding on what I should trim or dump.
Top holdings
- FB - 11%
- NFLX - 11%
- NVDA - 7.5%
- AMZN 7.5%
- MSFT - 7% (want to buy more)
- GOOG - 5.26%
APPL - 5.23%
Jazz - 4.91%
CRM - 5.22%
SQ - 4.29%
JPM - 3.72%
C - 3.51%
GS - 3.31%
Cash = 5%.
got tired after there.

some take aways. I own too much tech. Tech has grown much better than my non tech holdings like ABBV and BMY.
Live by the tech, die by the tech.

lol

Bigger swings both ways.
I like tech also.

GOOG reports on monday after the close.
I sold mine. I think it is going down but trying to predict earnings is a fool's errand.
I do think FB and GOOG have more downside in them than most because of the scrutiny, privacy issues and fines resulting from it.
That's just an opinion though. I have nothing to support that at the moment.

The problem with selling other stocks at the moment is that they've already dropped some.

You saw where I think the next short term bottom is going.
It may not even go down that far but barring some bad news it shouldn't go further.


The chart on the SP is showing a downward wedge and it's getting fairly close to the apex......I think.......

It's supposed to be more likely to turn up at the apex but I don't like putting a whole lot of stock in wedges and pennants, etc.

What it will do is break one way or the other. Has to.

Some of my tech stocks are going to be a buy real soon.
I have some of the semis and they seem to always lead the downturn but they also tend to come back strong and early.
Now, problem there is that while they are about down to support or trendline support, or moving averages, the overall market isn't done going down yet, so they might break trend on the downside.
On top of that, the semiconductors are highly cyclical commodities.
They may not be at the top of that but there are enough people worried about it to have created this sell off.....in semis, then tech, thereby the entire market.

The semis have earnings that are leveling off but they've been on a helluva climb.
With global economic growth being what it has, I don't expect a downturn in the chip cycle to be long or far, if it happens at all in the next year or two. I can't predict that, however.

IOWs if the semis break trend we're still going down across the market.
Then GOOG and FB get slammed some more?
Well, it just gets ugly from there.

On the other hand, the FANG stocks have been one of the safer trades the past few years.

Financials seem the safest for the moment but they'll get dragged down at some point if it continues on.


Again, I'm thinking 2580 for the short term bottom in the SP.
That's about 4% down.

So no firm answers really, these are just the thoughts I've been thinking for the past week.

I'm 20% cash and see little reason to sell much else at this point. I'll just ride it out and get in with my cash when I think we're close to this bottom with the expectation that we'll have a shorter upswing afterwards.

As I said though, we're in a wedge and it has to break trend at some point in the next several months. Might be Monday, might be August or something.
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Old 04-21-2018, 10:16 AM   #1234
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Never a good idea to sell assets for “oh shit” money.

You should have an emergency cash stash capable of covering 6-9 months of expenses. That’s where your “oh shit” money should come from.

If you do not have that emergency stash build it before you move.

My .02 anyway...
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Old 04-21-2018, 10:18 AM   #1235
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Oh, on your pharma stocks,

BMY-- yeah down a bunch. Still going down IMO but it's probably getting close to a bottom. If it were me, and it's not, I'd hold that one. Ouch. I would have warned you about that one....
BMY had good news on their lung cancer drug in trials but MRK's drug did a little better IIRC. Will depend on the patient but the market only knows that MRK's drug will get the lion's share of the sales.
BMY has been overvalued for a time. It's getting closer to a fair valuation.
That's just MO, however.

ABBV got spanked on its recent cancer drug failure. Don't remember the name.
It's decently valued with a nice dividend and should rebound IMHO.
Definite hold on that one.

Most drug's fail in trials. Just how it is.
Even ones that are approved and make it to market get dumped a couple of years out due to problems. It happens. You just have to accept that to play in the sector.

The one company I absolutely wouldn't touch in the sector is AGN.
I've traded it a few times and came to couple of conclusions:

--They are doing shady shit with their accounting

--Thusly, the CEO can't be trusted

CELG is another to be cautious of.
Management has fucked things up bigtime.
Even if the stock recovers, it is going to be awhile IMO.
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Old 04-21-2018, 03:23 PM   #1236
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ABBV

I'm thinking that may actually be a buy at this point.
Chart and valuation look attractive.
I may buy some this week.
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Old 04-22-2018, 06:49 PM   #1237
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yuik View Post
I am actively going to start trimming to get to 10-20% cash. Thinking about moving to utah and having more money in cash will make me feel better as oh shit money.
Deciding on what I should trim or dump.
Top holdings
- FB - 11%
- NFLX - 11%
- NVDA - 7.5%
- AMZN 7.5%
- MSFT - 7% (want to buy more)
- GOOG - 5.26%
APPL - 5.23%
Jazz - 4.91%
CRM - 5.22%
SQ - 4.29%
JPM - 3.72%
C - 3.51%
GS - 3.31%
Cash = 5%.
got tired after there.

some take aways. I own too much tech. Tech has grown much better than my non tech holdings like ABBV and BMY.
I'm a strict asset allocation guy and part of that is the very reason that you cite. IF you stick to it, it can help force you to sell high and buy low.

For example it seems counterintuitive as heck, but study after study done by economists has shown that mixing in 10% bonds to your portfolio consistently outperforms a 100% equity allocation.

The reason is the asset allocation forces you to sell bonds and buy stocks when rates are typically dropping, and BUY bonds and sell equities when rates are moving up again.

Seems simple enough, but it is amazing how people want to hang on to their winners AND their losers as once you sell out a losing position or slower growth position you are taking the hit, no more waiting for it to go back up.

So my recommendation would be to lighten up on tech, yes maybe add cash as bonds still are way pricey right now, but don't overlook super high quality blue chip dividend paying stocks. Sounds like you are young enough that you can take advantage of growth and longer time horizons dividend payers can offer.

You might also consider some equities w heavy exposure to one or more commodities like the oil cos or ADM or something.

Personally, I have been heavily overweighted in cash w a healthy chunk in PMs and 2nd Amemdment hard assets (lol) for past 1-2 years primarily because I have two kids I need to send to college with that first check not too far off.

So good luck and again good call on getting the hell out of that socialist paradise NJ. It's only going to get A LOT worse there vis a vis taxes etc.
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Old Yesterday, 08:51 AM   #1238
yuik
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jabes0623 View Post
Never a good idea to sell assets for “oh shit” money.

You should have an emergency cash stash capable of covering 6-9 months of expenses. That’s where your “oh shit” money should come from.

If you do not have that emergency stash build it before you move.

My .02 anyway...
Yeah my income is good so in the next two months I’ll keep more cash.
And I’ll maybe dump half of he ethereum I have been mining into cash.

Right now I have super low expenses due to my girlfriend and I living with my divorced mother, I’ll typically just buy equities with the excess money I have each month rather than keep it in cash. And I have a laundry list of stocks I want to buy.

Just started a more robust China exposure. Baba and tencent
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Old Today, 02:00 PM   #1239
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Wedge remains in place.
10 year treasury hit 3%--probably triggering algorithmic sell off.

Volume has been low. Not enough buyers.
Likely related to that wedge and the 10 year rate.

Still watching 2580 on the S&P.

2% downside possibly, if the base on the wedge holds.


Geopolitical and interest risk remains also.
Could change things either way.
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