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Old 03-20-2017, 05:12 PM   #771
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Martin Armstrong.

snip
I would be very wary of trusting anyone who has spent 11 years and 7 months of his life in federal prison

for those unaware, this fellow was running a pyramid scheme that used new investors' money to conceal losses on current investors' positions. the bank he had partnered with was producing falsified statements to keep clients from realizing that they had lost money. $600+ million was ultimately returned to investors

watch your back when dealing with felons...
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Old 03-20-2017, 05:37 PM   #772
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Well the story of that case was actually quite complicated. A lot of political ass covering as a well connected bank (Republic National) was the actual entity that made a disastrous series of trades and or absconded w th money. Also conveniently, the Chair of Republic was killed in a mysterious fire in his apartment just after the missing money was discovered.

Also, The time he served was NOT for any underlying fraud, it was for contempt of court because he would not agree to a plea deal and the court thought he was holding out on hidden assets. To this day it is the longest federal sentence ever served in the U.S. for contempt of court.

But yeah, I hear you RS believe me. I actually followed the case closely at the time, because it was in my field of expertise.

It's important to note that this guy is not currently managing any assets. He used to manage $3 Trillion and was called upon by many major GOVERNMENTS in the world for currency and commodities advice. He also correctly called the 1998 Russian financial crisis and I think the Asian financial crisis.


Today, he sells reports on various markets primarily to institutional investors and holds a couple of seminars a year at $5K a pop I think and they always are oversubscribed. Too rich for my blood.

Fortunately, he dribbles out free tid bits each day in emails and this is what I have scooped up.

At the end of the day, assuming he were a convicted fraudster, if his market calls are right and making you money or saving your assets from destruction, do you really care?

I suppose his advice is worth what I pay for it.
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Old 03-20-2017, 09:20 PM   #773
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The martin armstrong guy is interesting, not sure i would ever pay for a set of stock tips, because if they are correct enough they should just use options and maximize their profit without anyone else following.

But i guess cnbc and bloomberg do the same shit they just sell adds vs selling a subscription.

I saw he doesnt believe in man made climate change based on wikipedia. Can you sum that up in a sentence or two? Is it along the lines of the researchers proving it have their funding grants tied to showing evidence of climate change thus the incentive to cherry pick?
I would assume a guy like that has quantitative reasons behind most of his opinions.

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I bought more AMGN on the open.

Price down substantially on their REPATHA study.

Market didn't care for the results, thinking benefit wasn't substantial enough to get insurance companies to pay for this VERY expensive drug.

MO is that the results are good. Excellent, even, and with improved benefits over time.

That's just MO, however.

Also of note, much insider acquisition in the past month.


Just letting you guys know I bought more.

You have to watch the price action if you're interested. Very volatile this AM.
One trade I wished i could undo was dumping Amgen in to buy JUno and Halo which hasnt done much (i was looking for higher upside).

Though Jazz Pharm has been treating me well and I am glad I doubled down in 2014 getting rid of Bristol Meyers for it.

I feel like buying amgen at any price will have me up in 2-4 years, but I am hoping for a better entry point. And I still think goldman will be my next buy on a pullback. I am pretty glad how the i-banks didnt run up after confirming the double rate hike (I think people didnt like how they didnt change it to 3).
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Old 03-20-2017, 09:29 PM   #774
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AMGN might go down some more. I'd say it has a 50% chance of dipping below $158.

I'll buy more if it goes down more.

It's a pretty solid stock IMO....

....but I've been wrong before.

Well, not often really, but I tend to buy early and sell early.
I've given up on some I was convinced were ready to soar only to find out I got out too early, losing patience on stocks that had some sweet gains.
Those were really my biggest mistakes and I still do it sometimes.


You guys should watch CELG for a good entry point also.
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Old 03-20-2017, 11:11 PM   #775
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On climate change he has tracked solar cycles as they relate to many commodities prices and even plague and war cycles because of crops failing.

Anyway apparently we are entering into a "Maunder Minimum" which is a solar cooling event essentially. His economic cycles work was predicting it and he became interested and sure enough ice core samples and other data demonstrated a natural non man-made warm cool pattern.

Scientists who have a stake in the climate change racket tried to suppress this and other data but it slowly leaked out which resulted in 1) changing it from global warming to climate change and 2) a new theory that global warming had "paused".

Since Trump has come in more real data is being released. I saw something a while back about NASA stating that there is no evidence of global warming.

Basically it is a big scheme to raise taxes which ties back in to the gov over taxation and corruption cycles.

Same goes for crackdown on use of cash in EU and in India and even here w civil asset forfeiture. It is about tracking down every last dime for taxation.
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Old 03-21-2017, 02:24 PM   #776
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AMGN might go down some more. I'd say it has a 50% chance of dipping below $158.

I'll buy more if it goes down more.

It's a pretty solid stock IMO....

....but I've been wrong before.

Well, not often really, but I tend to buy early and sell early.
I've given up on some I was convinced were ready to soar only to find out I got out too early, losing patience on stocks that had some sweet gains.
Those were really my biggest mistakes and I still do it sometimes.


You guys should watch CELG for a good entry point also.
I was lucky enough to buy celgene in 2012 because I worked at a building where celgene had a floor or two and the people always seemed happy.

I then checked their glassdoor reviews and people seemed happy with the company which lead me to pull the trigger.

one other reason I want to buy goldman is because even though they work brutal hours people still enjoy the company and the mission according to glassdoor reviews so I think they may have the work ethic and the loyalty to keep out performing their peers.

I bought jpm and citi first because the value seemed to be too good compared to goldman.

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On climate change he has tracked solar cycles as they relate to many commodities prices and even plague and war cycles because of crops failing.

Anyway apparently we are entering into a "Maunder Minimum" which is a solar cooling event essentially. His economic cycles work was predicting it and he became interested and sure enough ice core samples and other data demonstrated a natural non man-made warm cool pattern.

Scientists who have a stake in the climate change racket tried to suppress this and other data but it slowly leaked out which resulted in 1) changing it from global warming to climate change and 2) a new theory that global warming had "paused".

Since Trump has come in more real data is being released. I saw something a while back about NASA stating that there is no evidence of global warming.

Basically it is a big scheme to raise taxes which ties back in to the gov over taxation and corruption cycles.

Same goes for crackdown on use of cash in EU and in India and even here w civil asset forfeiture. It is about tracking down every last dime for taxation.
very interesting stuff. By any chance does this guy have any movies about him? I feel like they would be a good watch.

I agree on the last point and am starting to like it.
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Old 03-21-2017, 02:43 PM   #777
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Same goes for crackdown on use of cash in EU and in India and even here w civil asset forfeiture. It is about tracking down every last dime for theft by parasites who refuse to work and contribute to the GDP.
Fixed it for you.
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Old 03-23-2017, 06:38 AM   #778
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Big day today boys. The House votes on Ryancare. I suspect it will pass but even if it doesn't I don't see that triggering a major selloff. The real question, in my mind anyway, is how wide a margin does it have to pass by to trigger another run?

I'm thinking it will pass but by the slimmest of margins & not really have too much effect, may even trigger a little selling, but I've been wrong before.

I have no idea why Trump didn't tackle tax reform first & then go after the ACA. That's the low hanging fruit here. Even if it didn't pass the conservatives could bash the (D) & RINO's over the head with it during the mid-term elections & maybe steal a seat or two. Now we're headed for political quagmire & therefor likely market quagmire as well.
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Old 03-23-2017, 09:07 AM   #779
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He went for this first to take advantage of the first 100 day honeymoon period as he probably figured this would be a harder sell than the tax package.

Now it is all at risk though. We'll see.
McConnell says they will get it through.
If the American People don't like the resulting law it will also impair his ability to get things done down the line.


For today,
I expect slight rise on the open, gradual sell off going into the vote, then it will depend.

Down vote > sell off

Up vote > rally


That's my call on it.

It's all about Trump now.
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Old 03-23-2017, 09:26 AM   #780
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What they need to do on Ryancare is delay any major negative changes until after the elections, both of em, just like the Dems did.
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Old 03-23-2017, 10:14 AM   #781
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I hate to see "us" stoop to their level. However, it's unthinkable that 0bama could get essentially his entire agenda shoved through, even with (R) majorities in Congress, & Trump could be stopped dead in his tracks in his first 100 days with (R) majorities in both houses of Congress. It's time to do what must be done, Trump has to win this.

This is the investing thread so I don't want to get too far off the rails here but IMO Ryancare is a piss poor attempt at repeal & replace. Rip 0bamacare up completely & then get the .gov out of the insurance/healthcare business entirely.

And I'm going to say it again, Trump should've stared with tax cuts! Damnit.
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Old 03-23-2017, 05:01 PM   #782
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Just sold Juno today I lost 60% on it.

Not sure if I should sell Fitbit too what are your thoughts?

I plan on buying Goldman and then saving up till I have 10-20% in cash before I consider buying again.
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I hate to see "us" stoop to their level. However, it's unthinkable that 0bama could get essentially his entire agenda shoved through, even with (R) majorities in Congress, & Trump could be stopped dead in his tracks in his first 100 days with (R) majorities in both houses of Congress. It's time to do what must be done, Trump has to win this.

This is the investing thread so I don't want to get too far off the rails here but IMO Ryancare is a piss poor attempt at repeal & replace. Rip 0bamacare up completely & then get the .gov out of the insurance/healthcare business entirely.

And I'm going to say it again, Trump should've stared with tax cuts! Damnit.
I thought they already appealed Obamacare? Does it not get repealed till they replace it?

What would your legislation be? I feel like the 26 year old kid thing isn't awful and not fucking people with preexisting conditions.
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Old 03-23-2017, 11:37 PM   #783
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Does anyone know if I am trying to get my income under the Roth IRA income limit so I can contribute the max to my Roth IRA 5500$, the things that I can deduct to bring my total income down is my hsa and any pre tax 401k contributions right? Is there anything else I can do to bring my income down to make sure I'm under the amount to fully contribute to my Roth IRA ?

Thanks
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Old 03-24-2017, 12:56 AM   #784
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Reading through all of this is mind numbing. I've never talked with anyone who knows anything about investments, so all of this is so foreign to me. I really do need to come up with some sort of investment plan, but need to start really small just to see how it all works.

Any pointers for a new guy in the way of where to learn more, how to pick stocks, understanding trends, etc?
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Old 03-24-2017, 01:07 AM   #785
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Does anyone know if I am trying to get my income under the Roth IRA income limit so I can contribute the max to my Roth IRA 5500$, the things that I can deduct to bring my total income down is my hsa and any pre tax 401k contributions right? Is there anything else I can do to bring my income down to make sure I'm under the amount to fully contribute to my Roth IRA ?

Thanks
Talk to your CPA about a backdoor Roth IRA contribution
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Old 03-24-2017, 01:13 AM   #786
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Reading through all of this is mind numbing. I've never talked with anyone who knows anything about investments, so all of this is so foreign to me. I really do need to come up with some sort of investment plan, but need to start really small just to see how it all works.

Any pointers for a new guy in the way of where to learn more, how to pick stocks, understanding trends, etc?
Start here https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/

You can also work with one of the hundreds of thousands of people calling themselves "financial advisors" these days, but many of them will turn you away since you don't have enough savings yet for them to justify working with you. You'll have to either pay them an hourly fee or a huge upfront commission to make it worth their while. Your CPA can help you with choosing what type of accounts to contribute to but he can't really advise you on investments
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:23 AM   #787
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Start here https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/

You can also work with one of the hundreds of thousands of people calling themselves "financial advisors" these days, but many of them will turn you away since you don't have enough savings yet for them to justify working with you. You'll have to either pay them an hourly fee or a huge upfront commission to make it worth their while. Your CPA can help you with choosing what type of accounts to contribute to but he can't really advise you on investments
Thank you sir for the timely advice, and honest assessment. I will definitely be looking into it. Much appreciated.
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Old 03-24-2017, 10:51 AM   #788
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Reading through all of this is mind numbing. I've never talked with anyone who knows anything about investments, so all of this is so foreign to me. I really do need to come up with some sort of investment plan, but need to start really small just to see how it all works.

Any pointers for a new guy in the way of where to learn more, how to pick stocks, understanding trends, etc?
There's lots of good books on the subject. Many written by several of the best investors of all time. Here's a really good one that will lay a good foundation of knowledge for you.

https://www.amazon.com/Common-Stocks.../dp/0471445509

However, there is no substitute for experience so I encourage everyone who's just getting into investing to use a financial advisor. I've been investing for nearly 20 years now & I still have a financial advisor. Companies like Edward Jones pour 10's of millions of $'s into research & gain insight on so many more companies that the average investor could ever hope to.

I haven't had the same experience with FA's as rstrobel, mine charges very reasonable fees & I believe the account minimum is only $1,000. Obviously you want to deal with someone reputable, I'd suggest you talk to a few people you really trust & ask who they work with. I bet you one name comes up a few times, then go sit down & talk to them.
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Old 03-24-2017, 12:35 PM   #789
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There's lots of good books on the subject. Many written by several of the best investors of all time. Here's a really good one that will lay a good foundation of knowledge for you.

https://www.amazon.com/Common-Stocks.../dp/0471445509

However, there is no substitute for experience so I encourage everyone who's just getting into investing to use a financial advisor. I've been investing for nearly 20 years now & I still have a financial advisor. Companies like Edward Jones pour 10's of millions of $'s into research & gain insight on so many more companies that the average investor could ever hope to.

I haven't had the same experience with FA's as rstrobel, mine charges very reasonable fees & I believe the account minimum is only $1,000. Obviously you want to deal with someone reputable, I'd suggest you talk to a few people you really trust & ask who they work with. I bet you one name comes up a few times, then go sit down & talk to them.
Sounds like solid advice. I will do some asking around. I had given some thought to perhaps a mutual fund investment through a well established investment company, but have been worried that they'd laugh at me if I came to them with less than say $50,000.00 to invest. If such a thing could be started for as little as you mentioned, I would be a happy camper.
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Old 03-24-2017, 01:11 PM   #790
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However, there is no substitute for experience so I encourage everyone who's just getting into investing to use a financial advisor. I've been investing for nearly 20 years now & I still have a financial advisor. Companies like Edward Jones pour 10's of millions of $'s into research & gain insight on so many more companies that the average investor could ever hope to.

I haven't had the same experience with FA's as rstrobel, mine charges very reasonable fees & I believe the account minimum is only $1,000. Obviously you want to deal with someone reputable, I'd suggest you talk to a few people you really trust & ask who they work with. I bet you one name comes up a few times, then go sit down & talk to them.

After years of working in the industry, I have seen widespread abuse of clients by people calling themselves "financial advisors". Many FAs operate in a manner that I consider to be fraudulent and yet they are perfectly within the guidelines of the law per the "suitability" standard which says pretty much anything is okay as long as the investment is "suitable" for the client. It is even possible for a fiduciary to un-fiduciary himself when working with a client in a non-advisory account and switch back to the suitability standard.

For example, an S&P 500 mutual fund with a 5% commission/1% expense ratio and an S&P 500 ETF with no commission and a .05% expense ratio are considered identical from a suitability perspective.

Many of the well-known firms with positive public images are entirely geared toward taking money out of your pocket and putting it into their pocket. Since you mentioned EJ, I will mention that they are geared toward a high commission, hidden fee model which charges clients an upfront commission and/or withdraws "trails" straight from the mutual fund so that the fees don't appear on the clients' statements. This is a huge conflict of interest since a) the fees are hidden and b) it encourages their "advisors" to sell those products because they make more money by doing so. They are moving away from this model as a result of the DOL proposal, but I don't expect much to change overall.

If someone is working as an "advisor" and has to meet a quota or face losing his job, it's very easy to pick the hidden fee mutual fund rather than buying a cheap index fund that has pretty much identical holdings.

They typically make their employees sign a two or three year non-compete agreement that prevents them from leaving to join another firm since their licenses will expire if they are out of the industry for two years. Breaking that agreement results in immediate lawsuits. That means that as an employee, once you discover what is going on, you cannot leave and go somewhere else because they will sue you or you will have to wait several years and retake all your tests.

Many (probably most) financial advisors are more along the lines of a financial product salesman than an actual financial advisor. This is widely documented in the subreddit I linked above.

http://www.wealthmanagement.com/liti...dependence-won

https://www.fool.com/investing/gener...eally-ser.aspx
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Old 03-24-2017, 03:07 PM   #791
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Reading through all of this is mind numbing. I've never talked with anyone who knows anything about investments, so all of this is so foreign to me. I really do need to come up with some sort of investment plan, but need to start really small just to see how it all works.

Any pointers for a new guy in the way of where to learn more, how to pick stocks, understanding trends, etc?
The Intelligent Investor- Ben Graham - longer term investing, this was Warren Buffett's mentor.

How to profit in Bull and Bear Markets- Stan Weinstein- the original "bible" of technical trading/chart reading, read this if you read nothing else. Short to medium term trading.

For quick and dirty meat&potatoes, read any of Toni Turner's books, lots of good daytrading and scalping info.
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Old 03-24-2017, 03:51 PM   #792
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My advice though probably not popular amongst some is that you ask questions here and bounce stocks off of us.

I'll be glad to give you MO, FWETW. lol

There's not any real sweet deals on stocks right now.

I'd tell you otherwise to go with low fee firms like Vanguard or Fidelity and do it yourself. Easy for me to say though.

There are tax issues with buying mutual funds outside of retirement vehicles so I just really can't recommend those for a brokerage account.

That really leaves you with individual stocks.

Bonds are fraught with peril at the moment, IMO.


What you're looking for is really what this thread is about.
Don't go by our individual picks.
But you can learn from us about how to pick stocks.

I'm a valuation/technical stock picker.
That's my thing.
I look for cheap stocks with good dividends or growth prospects, then go to the charts for a good entry or exit point.

The books noted tend to be exceptionally long winded with a few sparse nuggets scattered amongst excessive verbosity. That's been ME.

You don't say your age either.
That's important.

We don't know how much debt you have and that's an issue also.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:03 PM   #793
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Doc hit on a couple of points that I think are the most important reason for any noob to sit down with a FA. What are your goals? What's your net worth? Age? Debt? Do you have enough cash on hand to cover 6 months of expenses should some tragedy strike?

There's a lot more that goes into being financially secure than just buying stock X & hoping you double your money in 6 months.

You can make $200,000 a year & be in financial ruins or you can make $50,000 a year & be very financially secure.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:08 PM   #794
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AK-104,

Go to the OP and use the link to the first thread.

It's a lot to cover but look for the links and check them out.
Add them to your favorites and make a folder for this stuff there.

You do have to learn the lingo. There's a link to a good place for that.

There's good links to spots for other useful information also.

I took about 6 weeks, spent a lot of time learning this stuff, then started dipping my toe in.

I have CNBC on all day generally, while I do whatever I do.
Be careful NOT TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NOISE.
But you have to get news that is timely somewhere.
CNBC is much better than Fox business IMO as much as I hate their leftist networks.

The pundits and analysts are often looking to pad their own accounts and trying to move the market so be careful. At some point, if you're knowledgeable, you have to trust your instincts.
YOU WILL NOT BE RIGHT ALL THE TIME.

I also tend to buy and sell incrementally. You'll see plenty about that if you look through these two threads.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:14 PM   #795
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Doc hit on a couple of points that I think are the most important reason for any noob to sit down with a FA. What are your goals? What's your net worth? Age? Debt? Do you have enough cash on hand to cover 6 months of expenses should some tragedy strike?

There's a lot more that goes into being financially secure than just buying stock X & hoping you double your money in 6 months.

You can make $200,000 a year & be in financial ruins or you can make $50,000 a year & be very financially secure.
The trick is finding someone both good and honest.
That's not easy. Not even close.
I've seen the experiences of friends and family.

Most of them are primarily salesmen so be forewarned.
That means they're working on their commissions first of all.

If the first word out of their mouth is "ANNUITY" be extremely cautious.
I'd just say run like hell after giving them the finger but that's me.


Even if you go with a FA, you really need to know WTF is going on. Maybe more so IMO.

Watch out for anything with a load or high fees.

FUNDS,ETC THAT CAN MAKE UP IN GAINS FOR HIGH FEES AND LOADS ARE ALMOST NONEXISTENT.

Ask us anything. Seriously.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:18 PM   #796
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I absolutely agree w RS on FAs. I have 20+ years of experience as well most of it dealing w either preventing or facilitating industry from screwing each other or investors (large or small).

Anyway, AK-104, it obviously is hard to give precise financial advice w out knowing your precise situation in terms of asset level, tax bracket, future financial needs and goals.

However, please don't overlook the "implied" return that can be had risk free by paying down any outstanding debt. Mortgage rates are low overall, and mortgage interest is tax deductible, but for many people paying down a higher rate ARM, an auto loan, and especially credit cards should be priorities prior to any investing.

Also you'll want 3-6 months in cash for emergency expenses. It can double as a "too good to pass up investment opportunity fund" if your cash flow is good.

Maximize all your tax free contributions and be sure to get any 401(k) employer "match" if available or anything similar. A good example would be a state level 529 college savings plan.

Being able to defer or avoid taxes is a massive advantage. You also shouldn't overlook investing in your family's "infrastructure" if it can help you to earn money or weather future turbulence.

Adding on to your house w good "bang for your buck" renovations like kitchen or bathroom is a good way to bank money while enjoying it at the same time.

Spending money on training for you or your family is also an excellent move if it results in new higher paying or more personally fulfilling career opportunities.

Finally, while it is very tempting to "play the market" understand that individual stocks can and do drop to zero. Also even broad market "index" funds can and do drop significantly.

Over the long haul 7+ years (and for sure 15+) stocks almost always at least keep up w inflation, but be sure you can be patient enough to weather big setbacks. Otherwise liquidity or cash flow problems can turn paper losses that might eventually reverse, into actual cash losses that erase a good chunk of your holdings.

If you are at all good w your hands or know people who are investing in real estate that your rent for income can be a great way to monetize your skills while also benefiting from appreciating property values. Like stocks, real estate generally at least keeps pace w inflation.

If you are still interested in stocks, I would visit the "FINRA" investor education web site as they have a lot of good material about the risks associated w investing in stocks and bonds.

Good luck.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:23 PM   #797
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I agree 100% with Doc's last post & Rev's post above. In the end YOU are responsible & though it's my opinion that most people can benefit from the advice of a FA you must watch them like a hawk. Just like, I would hope, you would with anyone who handles your money.

On a totally unrelated note: I know we mostly talk the stock market in here. However if you have any investment properties you're thinking of selling IMO this is the time to do it. I listed some this Wed. This is the best the real estate market has been around here in a decade. As always real estate is location location location so YMMV.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:50 PM   #798
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In the end, no amount of reading will get the job done, nothing teaches you like actual trading, not even so-called "practice" accounts (those are actually traps for the gullible).

Got to get your feet wet. But be aware that it's estimated that up to 90% of first time traders lose everything in the first 3 months.

Start slow, be happy with small gains. Try to remember the times in your life when you were busting your ass all day long in the hot sun for less than a hundred dollars in pay, that 200 dollar gain for sitting on your butt for an hour starts to look REAL good then.

Psychologically, a loss is 3 times more devastating than a winning trade is gratifying, that too is a trap. Got to be emotionless.
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Old 03-24-2017, 06:20 PM   #799
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Psychologically, a loss is 3 times more devastating than a winning trade is gratifying, that too is a trap. Got to be emotionless.
This is a reason to trade incrementally.

Find a good stock?

Down nicely?

Buy some. Maybe 1/4 to 1/3 what you want.

Goes down? Don't get bummed.

Buy some more.

Goes down some more? Same

If you did your homework and you chose wisely, it will go back up.

Reality is you want it to go down at first SO YOU CAN BUY MORE!!!


Goes up?
Sit on it.
Goes up enough, sell it.

Built up a nice position?
Sell SOME.
Sell incrementally the same way you bought in.


No emotion.

Buying on greed and selling on fear....

IOWs, buying high and selling low, is the sure way to lose all your money.


You can trade the overall market, or sectors, the same way.


Stay away from long shots. You'll lose your ass.
Stay away from IPOs. You'll lose your ass.
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Old 03-24-2017, 07:39 PM   #800
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Reading through all of this is mind numbing. I've never talked with anyone who knows anything about investmets, so all of this is so foreign to me. I really do need to come up with some sort of investment plan, but need to start really small just to see how it all works.

Any pointers for a new guy in the way of where to learn more, how to pick stocks, understanding trends, etc?
I would listen to a random walk down wall street audio book.

I would put my first 10-100k in an index fund depending on your net worth and tolerance for risk.

Two great places are bogleheads for buy and hold and index fund investing.

And I like finance.stackexchange.net for general finance ideas, and bigger pockets for real estate ideas.
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Old 03-24-2017, 07:50 PM   #801
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I would listen to a random walk down wall street audio book.

I would put my first 10-100k in an index fund depending on your net worth and tolerance for risk.

Two great places are bogleheads for buy and hold and index fund investing.

And I like finance.stackexchange.net for general finance ideas, and bigger pockets for real estate ideas.
Wait until you get your tax bill on the mutual fund.
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Old 03-24-2017, 08:09 PM   #802
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Wait until you get your tax bill on the mutual fund.
ah yes, the good old "you lost money but you still owe taxes"



for anyone wondering, ETFs tend to be far more efficient from a tax standpoint since mutual funds incur gains as shareholders redeem their shares. this is not true of all ETFs, but is a generalization.

when someone sells shares of a mutual fund, the fund company must sell a portion of the underlying assets within the fund in order to pay out the investor. the investor is cashed out (or buys in) at the net asset value of his shares.

this often results in a taxable event if the positions have gains on them within the fund itself. the investor walks away with his cash, but leaves behind the taxes due which other shareholders are responsible for paying. the one upside is that the mutual fund can harvest tax losses in order to counteract the gains. the fund can also distribute the capital gains which won't bother anyone who holds it in an IRA or anyone who is living off of the income stream from the mutual fund. however, investors holding the fund in a taxable account will be pissed




ETFs work an entirely different way. ETFs are issued in blocks, usually of 50,000 shares. when you buy an ETF, you buy it from someone else who already owns it, often a bank or other financial institution that holds an inventory of that ETF. you usually pay a slight discount or premium to the underlying net asset value. that means that if there are 10 shares of the ETF and $1000 in total stocks held by the ETF, each share is valued fairly at $100. typically they will trade at $100.01 or $99.99, though, just due to the market's slight inefficiency

multiple firms are often designated the right to issue more shares of a popular ETF. if demand for the ETF increases and shares are trading at a premium, the issuers will issue more shares. if demand drops and shares are trading at a discount, the issuers dismantle shares of the ETF, sell the underlying assets, and keep the profit. we saw this during the "second flash crash" a year or two back when many ETFs were trading ~65% of net asset value for about 15 minutes early in the morning. someone made a killing off that.

the issuers also usually keep an inventory of the ETF which they sell to you at a slight premium or buy from you at a slight discount to enhance liquidity in the market ("making a market")
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Old 03-24-2017, 08:39 PM   #803
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Maybe some fun...AK-104's post got me to thinking. Starting out trading today looking to get your feet wet, make a little money & with the ability to buy & hold. Sticking to large cap stocks, top 5...

Verizon
Facebook
FedEx
Disney
Apple
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Old 03-25-2017, 01:23 AM   #804
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Wait until you get your tax bill on the mutual fund.
What?

I only do low cost index funds. Vanguard admiral shares or schwab etfs the expense ratios are all well under .08%.

Also I think you can do tax harvesting, which is harder to do with individual stocks. Ie let's say the s&p is down before tax season, sell your schwab s&p fund and on the same day buy a vanguard s&p 500 fund. Or swap from one large cap to another. I don't mess with this as much, but I think one can argue that until he learns how to interpret a companies financials a few index funds might mirage any rookie mess ups.
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Old 03-25-2017, 01:30 AM   #805
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If I had to pick only 5 stocks off the top of my head not looking at any lists I have this is what they would be

Adobe (had Facebook but I think it can be unseated, I still love what they are doing with Instagram, also had salesforce here but yanked them).
MasterCard (decided against Google or Microsoft )
Amazon (if I didn't pick Microsoft, would want some cloud commodity exposure)
Schlumberger
Johnson& Johnson


Feel bad not having a bank but MasterCard kind of gets me that and maybe Dow the road Amazon will jump there like bidu or baba did in China.

Come to think of it I think I should sell some smaller speculative positions in favor of the larger growth stocks. Maybe that will be my plan in 2017.
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