Go Back   The AK Files Forums > General Forums > Survival and Preparedness

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 03-25-2017, 01:30 AM   #806
yuik
Member
 
AKaholic #: 188386
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 105
Default

If I had to pick only 5 stocks off the top of my head not looking at any lists I have this is what they would be

Adobe (had Facebook but I think it can be unseated, I still love what they are doing with Instagram, also had salesforce here but yanked them).
MasterCard (decided against Google or Microsoft )
Amazon (if I didn't pick Microsoft, would want some cloud commodity exposure)
Schlumberger
Johnson& Johnson


Feel bad not having a bank but MasterCard kind of gets me that and maybe Dow the road Amazon will jump there like bidu or baba did in China.

Come to think of it I think I should sell some smaller speculative positions in favor of the larger growth stocks. Maybe that will be my plan in 2017.
yuik is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2017, 09:35 AM   #807
drjarhead
MODERATOR and Mad Doctor
 
drjarhead's Avatar
 
AKaholic #: 5952
Join Date: May 2006
Location: north
Posts: 40,699
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by yuik View Post
What?

I only do low cost index funds. Vanguard admiral shares or schwab etfs the expense ratios are all well under .08%.

Also I think you can do tax harvesting, which is harder to do with individual stocks. Ie let's say the s&p is down before tax season, sell your schwab s&p fund and on the same day buy a vanguard s&p 500 fund. Or swap from one large cap to another. I don't mess with this as much, but I think one can argue that until he learns how to interpret a companies financials a few index funds might mirage any rookie mess ups.
See rstrobel's post above.

If you do mutual funds in a retirement vehicle like a 401K or IRA it's all fine.

If you use a brokerage account, you will get hit for taxes in an undesirable way.

Expense fees have nothing to do with it.
Neither does any load on the fund.

Since AK-104 has $50K to play with, he'd have to use a brokerage account.



Let's say the fund you've just bought picked up AAPL 10 years ago and bought it for $25.

Now it's worth $140.
You buy the fund.

Next week it goes down to $130 and your fund decides to sell a pile of it before it goes down further.

Now, you just lost $10/share.

However, at the end of the year, the fund will give you a tax bill on the $105/share profit.

So, you lost money but you pay a portion of the tax for those who gained over the years.


Mutual funds are best used in retirement vehicles, UNLESS you get it at the beginning, I suppose.


I learned this the heard way and try to pass my experience on to others.

It's one more reason I stick with individual stocks.
Occasionally, I do an ETF but I can usually do better picking the best prospects in a sector or industry so why should I blunt my returns?


You can stay diversified, which is key, pick individual stocks at the more propitious times to buy or sell, rather than getting stuck with a bunch in various spots on their respective chart.

All that said, I wish I did better than I do, and I should, but nothing goes perfect.
I tend to buy and sell too early but I still make money.

Been doing this for 3 years and 3 months.
I'm doubling the return of the market over that time.
Too much effort to do so, however. lol
I should be doing 50% returns IMO but I'm not getting close to that.
Keep learning though.
__________________
"All that is required for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
-Edmund Burke
drjarhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2017, 09:54 AM   #808
drjarhead
MODERATOR and Mad Doctor
 
drjarhead's Avatar
 
AKaholic #: 5952
Join Date: May 2006
Location: north
Posts: 40,699
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by yuik View Post
If I had to pick only 5 stocks off the top of my head not looking at any lists I have this is what they would be

Adobe (had Facebook but I think it can be unseated, I still love what they are doing with Instagram, also had salesforce here but yanked them).
MasterCard (decided against Google or Microsoft )
Amazon (if I didn't pick Microsoft, would want some cloud commodity exposure)
Schlumberger
Johnson& Johnson


Feel bad not having a bank but MasterCard kind of gets me that and maybe Dow the road Amazon will jump there like bidu or baba did in China.

Come to think of it I think I should sell some smaller speculative positions in favor of the larger growth stocks. Maybe that will be my plan in 2017.
You and jabes are picking good companies but the stocks are all pretty high right now.

This is where the chart watching comes in.

I don't see the point in buying stocks this high.

There are some I'm watching right now but some of the one's you guys are noting, I recently sold because of how high they've gone.

Doesn't mean they can't or won't go higher but NEVER CHASE the profits of others. You'd get beaten up doing that.

I'd tell you which ones I'm watching but it doesn't matter because invariably on a pullback you will find that there are ones you weren't looking to buy that provide far better opportunities.

In any event, IMO ones that are presenting decent opportunities at the moment are:

GOOGL
HBI
WHR
CELG
AMGN
VLO
REPYY
GM
DAL
MS
C

SO-SO:
CSCO
QCOM
INTC

The top part of that list are ones that have had a recent pullback.

I'm not pushing any of them right now, however.
That market is still pretty high but if someone is looking to get in, I recommend that start buying in slowly here if they are so inclined.

They might get a better price in the short - medium term.

Or not....



Now, on a pullback, definitely always look to improve your positions by getting better quality companies, ie BEST OF BREED BLUE CHIP STOCKS.

That's always when I end up with my best looking portfolio.

So then, APPL, VZ, FB, DIS, etc start looking real good though these stocks oftentimes don't pull back a whole lot with the overall market.

You just have to take the opportunities as they present.

Of course, over time these high grade companies will tend to out perform the overall market but it just depends where you get in at.
__________________
"All that is required for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
-Edmund Burke
drjarhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2017, 11:48 AM   #809
Jabes0623
Safe Space Lifeguard
 
Jabes0623's Avatar
 
AKaholic #: 173872
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: (740)
Posts: 3,920
Default

Just for the record I wasn't advocating buying those stocks right now. Just picking a solid pretty well diversified small portfolio that would be good for a beginner.

I'm not buying anything right now so I wouldn't feel right advising someone else to. I am doing some selling.

I like yuik's picks. Johnson & Johnson was #6 on my list. However Amazon would be tough for a noob to swing at $845 a share.
__________________
Go to Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company.
Jabes0623 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2017, 12:01 PM   #810
drjarhead
MODERATOR and Mad Doctor
 
drjarhead's Avatar
 
AKaholic #: 5952
Join Date: May 2006
Location: north
Posts: 40,699
Default

AMZN has great growth potential still but its valuation is so high I just keep passing on it.

There just seem better places to be.

That said, the rest of the retail industry looks like shit at the moment. Tons of value traps.

The other problem with AMZN right now is their CEOs proclivity to take a strong political side.

I've seen in the past couple of years what that has done to SBUX under Schulz.

I am expecting a deterioration of their revenue and earnings as a result.
Only time will tell.

Why CEOs take political positions publicly is something I will never understand.
__________________
"All that is required for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
-Edmund Burke
drjarhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2017, 12:06 PM   #811
drjarhead
MODERATOR and Mad Doctor
 
drjarhead's Avatar
 
AKaholic #: 5952
Join Date: May 2006
Location: north
Posts: 40,699
Default

Here is a good place to START looking at a stock:

http://finviz.com/map.ashx

Double click on the stock.

On the left, you can see world wide stocks, etc.
You can also change the timeframe.

On the charts you can change the timeframe as well.


This is a good place for real time charts:

https://www.google.com/finance?q=IND...-j9LJLeqAHQuQE

Type in the ticker for individual stocks, ETFs, etc.

You can create your own portfolio here as well. Just create an account.
__________________
"All that is required for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
-Edmund Burke
drjarhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2017, 07:34 PM   #812
yuik
Member
 
AKaholic #: 188386
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 105
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by drjarhead View Post
See rstrobel's post above.

If you do mutual funds in a retirement vehicle like a 401K or IRA it's all fine.

If you use a brokerage account, you will get hit for taxes in an undesirable way.

Expense fees have nothing to do with it.
Neither does any load on the fund.

Since AK-104 has $50K to play with, he'd have to use a brokerage account.



Let's say the fund you've just bought picked up AAPL 10 years ago and bought it for $25.

Now it's worth $140.
You buy the fund.

Next week it goes down to $130 and your fund decides to sell a pile of it before it goes down further.

Now, you just lost $10/share.

However, at the end of the year, the fund will give you a tax bill on the $105/share profit.

So, you lost money but you pay a portion of the tax for those who gained over the years.


Mutual funds are best used in retirement vehicles, UNLESS you get it at the beginning, I suppose.


I learned this the heard way and try to pass my experience on to others.

It's one more reason I stick with individual stocks.
Occasionally, I do an ETF but I can usually do better picking the best prospects in a sector or industry so why should I blunt my returns?


You can stay diversified, which is key, pick individual stocks at the more propitious times to buy or sell, rather than getting stuck with a bunch in various spots on their respective chart.

All that said, I wish I did better than I do, and I should, but nothing goes perfect.
I tend to buy and sell too early but I still make money.

Been doing this for 3 years and 3 months.
I'm doubling the return of the market over that time.
Too much effort to do so, however. lol
I should be doing 50% returns IMO but I'm not getting close to that.
Keep learning though.
Love the insight.

Question let's say I own an ETF let's say it's RYF. If they sell Goldman for a 100% profit do I pay taxes on that at the end of the year, or do I only pay cap gains taxes when I sell my shares of the etf to realize my gains?

I thought it was the later but I don't do my own taxes so I could be wrong.

Thanks again for your contributions my peers (25-28 years old) are mostly uninterested and sadly my girlfriend goes to sleep every time I put on a Jim Cramer podcast when we are driving on ski trips.
yuik is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2017, 08:08 PM   #813
rstrobel
Curio & Relic
Contributor
 
AKaholic #: 167348
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: PNW
Posts: 5,211
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by yuik View Post
Love the insight.

Question let's say I own an ETF let's say it's RYF. If they sell Goldman for a 100% profit do I pay taxes on that at the end of the year, or do I only pay cap gains taxes when I sell my shares of the etf to realize my gains?

I thought it was the later but I don't do my own taxes so I could be wrong.

Thanks again for your contributions my peers (25-28 years old) are mostly uninterested and sadly my girlfriend goes to sleep every time I put on a Jim Cramer podcast when we are driving on ski trips.
You don't pay any taxes on the ETF unless you trade it and realize a gain. The shares can go up in value while you own them and you don't pay taxes until you sell them and realize the gain or until the ETF pays you a distribution.

Whatever happens within the fund is irrelevant to your personal taxes unless they pass the taxable event on to you through a dividend or cap gains distribution. Note that this is different in many European countries where you are taxed on the paper gain regardless of whether you sell it or not.


If you own RYF and they sell their GS position, the fund itself incurs a tax liability. You do not owe taxes on this; the fund owes taxes on it. They either pay that liability with cash from within the fund (thereby lowering the net asset value of the fund), offset the gain by selling a position that is at a loss (which they can't do as part of an equal weighted fund since they have to maintain the equal weighting), or they pass the tax liability on to you through a dividend or cap gains distribution (probably the most common way it is done, typically at the end of the year).

That's actually a good argument not to own an equal weighted ETF (or mutual fund). Equal weighting requires the manager to regularly rebalance the fund. That is inefficient from a tax standpoint.


p.s. Jim Cramer is widely regarded as cancer for your financial well-being.
rstrobel is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2017, 08:08 PM   #814
drjarhead
MODERATOR and Mad Doctor
 
drjarhead's Avatar
 
AKaholic #: 5952
Join Date: May 2006
Location: north
Posts: 40,699
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by yuik View Post
Love the insight.

Question let's say I own an ETF let's say it's RYF. If they sell Goldman for a 100% profit do I pay taxes on that at the end of the year, or do I only pay cap gains taxes when I sell my shares of the etf to realize my gains?

I thought it was the later but I don't do my own taxes so I could be wrong.

Thanks again for your contributions my peers (25-28 years old) are mostly uninterested and sadly my girlfriend goes to sleep every time I put on a Jim Cramer podcast when we are driving on ski trips.
That's alright.

Investing is like being chased by a bear. You don't have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun everyone else.

My wife doesn't give a shit either. She just lets me run it all and that's best anyhow.


As for ETFs, I don't believe they're treated the same way as mutual funds because of the way they're traded.

rstrobel is a FA and he says not so I'll take him at his word. I'm pretty sure that's right.

In another fashion, don't use limited partnerships in a retirement fund generally. You lose some of the tax benefits.
__________________
"All that is required for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
-Edmund Burke
drjarhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2017, 08:11 PM   #815
drjarhead
MODERATOR and Mad Doctor
 
drjarhead's Avatar
 
AKaholic #: 5952
Join Date: May 2006
Location: north
Posts: 40,699
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rstrobel View Post


p.s. Jim Cramer is widely regarded as cancer for your financial well-being.
I differ with that.
IMO he gives good overall advice but I don't buy stocks he recommends, same as all the rest of them.

I don't need someone to point out a stock that's gone up 30% in the past week. LOL
Where were they last week?


I learned a lot from Jim Cramer though. Just MO.
__________________
"All that is required for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
-Edmund Burke
drjarhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2017, 08:15 PM   #816
rstrobel
Curio & Relic
Contributor
 
AKaholic #: 167348
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: PNW
Posts: 5,211
Default

yes, MLPs and certain other investments can trigger what is called UBTI which results in a tax bill even if the investment is sheltered in an IRA. it's most commonly an issue with oil companies.

holding an MLP in an IRA is silly anyway. you lose the ability to utilize the MLP's depreciation benefits if it is placed in an IRA.
rstrobel is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2017, 08:19 PM   #817
yuik
Member
 
AKaholic #: 188386
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 105
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by drjarhead View Post
AMZN has great growth potential still but its valuation is so high I just keep passing on it.

There just seem better places to be.

That said, the rest of the retail industry looks like shit at the moment. Tons of value traps.

The other problem with AMZN right now is their CEOs proclivity to take a strong political side.

I've seen in the past couple of years what that has done to SBUX under Schulz.

I am expecting a deterioration of their revenue and earnings as a result.
Only time will tell.

Why CEOs take political positions publicly is something I will never understand.
I remember talking against the absurd PE ratio of Amazon when it was in the 300s, and I have been proved wrong time and time again. So I jumped on board around 630ish. They remind me of the tech version of Goldman Sachs. Get enough smart people willing to work 50-70 hours a week and surprising things will happen. They don't trade off earnings similiar to tesla.

I could see Amazon going back to 300$ a share but I decided I wanted a small speculation position aboard their train.

I also feel like more or america leans left or at least that's what CNN and most of the media tells me (so it could be wrong due to their track record), so a left leaning CEO won't 100% tank them. It might actually help but who knows. I too would prefer ceos of the companies I owned to not disclose any political preferences to mitigate unexpected bumps.
yuik is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2017, 08:23 PM   #818
yuik
Member
 
AKaholic #: 188386
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 105
Default

Jim Cramer is the best way to stay in tune with the market while on the treadmill or driving to work.

If you have any other podcasts that I can play on my iPhone let me know.

I wish we got Bloomberg at my work gym but the sound only works on like 2 treadmills in my building so I default to my podcasts.


I use Cramer as rough play by play of what happened and maybe ideas that I should research.

Then when I want to buy I look at my giant watch list and pick something from the top 1/3 after some research. Sadly the watch list is too big for me to go though all of it.

I could be more diligent but as of right now I don't want to invest more time.
yuik is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2017, 08:27 PM   #819
drjarhead
MODERATOR and Mad Doctor
 
drjarhead's Avatar
 
AKaholic #: 5952
Join Date: May 2006
Location: north
Posts: 40,699
Default

Well, AMZNs profit margin is pretty thin.

How much volume do you think they'd have to lose for that profit margin to disappear?

Not much.


However, I can't completely disagree with your limited spec play. Considered the same myself a few times.

But there's just better places to have my money.
You're young. Have at it.
I can't afford the loss.

I've got a feeling Jeff Bezos is about to get a wake up call for his arrogance, same as Howard Schulz.
__________________
"All that is required for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
-Edmund Burke
drjarhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2017, 11:36 PM   #820
Rev06
Veteran Member
Bronze Contributor
 
AKaholic #: 185972
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: burbs/rural BOL near Canada
Posts: 1,659
Default

A minor point, but someone above mentioned selling one S&P 500 ETF and then buying another one say issued by Schwab, for tax purposes.

The IRS is on to this strategy and has issued "wash sale" rules to be sure you still pay tax if you re-enter what essentially is the same financial position within 30 days of the first sale (or purchase).

It can get complicated as there are a lot of ways to get pretty close to the same financial holding w running afoul of these rules.

Anyway, a somewhat esoteric point, but something about which all buy and sell investors should be aware.
__________________
Rev
Rev06 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2017, 12:33 AM   #821
yuik
Member
 
AKaholic #: 188386
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 105
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rev06 View Post
A minor point, but someone above mentioned selling one S&P 500 ETF and then buying another one say issued by Schwab, for tax purposes.

The IRS is on to this strategy and has issued "wash sale" rules to be sure you still pay tax if you re-enter what essentially is the same financial position within 30 days of the first sale (or purchase).

It can get complicated as there are a lot of ways to get pretty close to the same financial holding w running afoul of these rules.

Anyway, a somewhat esoteric point, but something about which all buy and sell investors should be aware.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drjarhead View Post
Well, AMZNs profit margin is pretty thin.

How much volume do you think they'd have to lose for that profit margin to disappear?

Not much.


However, I can't completely disagree with your limited spec play. Considered the same myself a few times.

But there's just better places to have my money.
You're young. Have at it.
I can't afford the loss.

I've got a feeling Jeff Bezos is about to get a wake up call for his arrogance, same as Howard Schulz.
Honestly fuck the retail business i like AWS and the margins they had in the cloud. I used azure for 2 years and it's pretty nice I sat in one class about aws and was like wow they have a decent moat protecting them from Microsoft and others here.


Some of the brokerage accounts maybe fidelity or vanguard advertise it calling it tax harvesting. It might be selling say mid cap equal weight and then buying mid cap growth or mid cap dividends.

You can't sell the same exact ticket symbol etf. So if I am using swabs reit etf I need to dumb it and buy vanguards.
yuik is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 4 (0 members and 4 guests)
 
Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:52 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
©2015 The AK FIles