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Old 04-19-2018, 12:19 PM   #1226
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IT stocks got a double whammy today.

TSM (Taiwan Semis) said they were down due to poor iPhone sales in China.

This is hitting the entire sector.

Home builder stocks are down on higher lumber, higher interest rates, lack of buildable lots, labor shortage and some other pressure. I expect that the bad winter also had adverse effects so I think they'll bounce back once they bottom

Financials are hanging in.
Energy was up earlier but back down some, essentially level.

Overall, stocks are showing signs of rolling over.

Risk is to the downside IMO. I would be cautious buying right now. Better entry points coming, I expect.
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Old 04-19-2018, 09:52 PM   #1227
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Sold off my entire position in COP early today.
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Old 04-19-2018, 11:28 PM   #1228
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Originally Posted by Jabes0623 View Post
Sold off my entire position in COP early today.
Why?
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Old 04-20-2018, 06:41 AM   #1229
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It finally climbed to the point where I was able to turn a profit on every share I owned. And I wanted to move the $ I had tied up in it to other positions in my portfolio that are performing much better. Specifically MA, but I also added a little to my AAPL since it was under some pressure yesterday.
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Old 04-20-2018, 10:28 AM   #1230
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It finally climbed to the point where I was able to turn a profit on every share I owned. And I wanted to move the $ I had tied up in it to other positions in my portfolio that are performing much better. Specifically MA, but I also added a little to my AAPL since it was under some pressure yesterday.
Just wondered.

Chart on it said, SELL, SELL, SELL!

LOL

Valuation was quite excessive also.
Shit earnings, shit growth, shit dividend.

Good time to get out.

I don't think AAPL is done going down yet but it's looking like a better price today. That's a tough one to call a bottom on.
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Old 04-20-2018, 05:15 PM   #1231
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S&P @ 2580 for a short term bottom.

Maybe some good news will bounce us back up sooner but that's how it is looking to me.

Obviously, individual stocks and even sectors can act differently.


AAPL is still not done going down, IMHO.
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Old 04-20-2018, 10:28 PM   #1232
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I am actively going to start trimming to get to 10-20% cash. Thinking about moving to utah and having more money in cash will make me feel better as oh shit money.
Deciding on what I should trim or dump.
Top holdings
- FB - 11%
- NFLX - 11%
- NVDA - 7.5%
- AMZN 7.5%
- MSFT - 7% (want to buy more)
- GOOG - 5.26%
APPL - 5.23%
Jazz - 4.91%
CRM - 5.22%
SQ - 4.29%
JPM - 3.72%
C - 3.51%
GS - 3.31%
Cash = 5%.
got tired after there.

some take aways. I own too much tech. Tech has grown much better than my non tech holdings like ABBV and BMY.
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Old 04-21-2018, 10:09 AM   #1233
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yuik View Post
I am actively going to start trimming to get to 10-20% cash. Thinking about moving to utah and having more money in cash will make me feel better as oh shit money.
Deciding on what I should trim or dump.
Top holdings
- FB - 11%
- NFLX - 11%
- NVDA - 7.5%
- AMZN 7.5%
- MSFT - 7% (want to buy more)
- GOOG - 5.26%
APPL - 5.23%
Jazz - 4.91%
CRM - 5.22%
SQ - 4.29%
JPM - 3.72%
C - 3.51%
GS - 3.31%
Cash = 5%.
got tired after there.

some take aways. I own too much tech. Tech has grown much better than my non tech holdings like ABBV and BMY.
Live by the tech, die by the tech.

lol

Bigger swings both ways.
I like tech also.

GOOG reports on monday after the close.
I sold mine. I think it is going down but trying to predict earnings is a fool's errand.
I do think FB and GOOG have more downside in them than most because of the scrutiny, privacy issues and fines resulting from it.
That's just an opinion though. I have nothing to support that at the moment.

The problem with selling other stocks at the moment is that they've already dropped some.

You saw where I think the next short term bottom is going.
It may not even go down that far but barring some bad news it shouldn't go further.


The chart on the SP is showing a downward wedge and it's getting fairly close to the apex......I think.......

It's supposed to be more likely to turn up at the apex but I don't like putting a whole lot of stock in wedges and pennants, etc.

What it will do is break one way or the other. Has to.

Some of my tech stocks are going to be a buy real soon.
I have some of the semis and they seem to always lead the downturn but they also tend to come back strong and early.
Now, problem there is that while they are about down to support or trendline support, or moving averages, the overall market isn't done going down yet, so they might break trend on the downside.
On top of that, the semiconductors are highly cyclical commodities.
They may not be at the top of that but there are enough people worried about it to have created this sell off.....in semis, then tech, thereby the entire market.

The semis have earnings that are leveling off but they've been on a helluva climb.
With global economic growth being what it has, I don't expect a downturn in the chip cycle to be long or far, if it happens at all in the next year or two. I can't predict that, however.

IOWs if the semis break trend we're still going down across the market.
Then GOOG and FB get slammed some more?
Well, it just gets ugly from there.

On the other hand, the FANG stocks have been one of the safer trades the past few years.

Financials seem the safest for the moment but they'll get dragged down at some point if it continues on.


Again, I'm thinking 2580 for the short term bottom in the SP.
That's about 4% down.

So no firm answers really, these are just the thoughts I've been thinking for the past week.

I'm 20% cash and see little reason to sell much else at this point. I'll just ride it out and get in with my cash when I think we're close to this bottom with the expectation that we'll have a shorter upswing afterwards.

As I said though, we're in a wedge and it has to break trend at some point in the next several months. Might be Monday, might be August or something.
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Old 04-21-2018, 10:16 AM   #1234
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Never a good idea to sell assets for “oh shit” money.

You should have an emergency cash stash capable of covering 6-9 months of expenses. That’s where your “oh shit” money should come from.

If you do not have that emergency stash build it before you move.

My .02 anyway...
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Old 04-21-2018, 10:18 AM   #1235
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Oh, on your pharma stocks,

BMY-- yeah down a bunch. Still going down IMO but it's probably getting close to a bottom. If it were me, and it's not, I'd hold that one. Ouch. I would have warned you about that one....
BMY had good news on their lung cancer drug in trials but MRK's drug did a little better IIRC. Will depend on the patient but the market only knows that MRK's drug will get the lion's share of the sales.
BMY has been overvalued for a time. It's getting closer to a fair valuation.
That's just MO, however.

ABBV got spanked on its recent cancer drug failure. Don't remember the name.
It's decently valued with a nice dividend and should rebound IMHO.
Definite hold on that one.

Most drug's fail in trials. Just how it is.
Even ones that are approved and make it to market get dumped a couple of years out due to problems. It happens. You just have to accept that to play in the sector.

The one company I absolutely wouldn't touch in the sector is AGN.
I've traded it a few times and came to couple of conclusions:

--They are doing shady shit with their accounting

--Thusly, the CEO can't be trusted

CELG is another to be cautious of.
Management has fucked things up bigtime.
Even if the stock recovers, it is going to be awhile IMO.
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These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.
-Thomas Paine, 1776



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Old 04-21-2018, 03:23 PM   #1236
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ABBV

I'm thinking that may actually be a buy at this point.
Chart and valuation look attractive.
I may buy some this week.
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These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.
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Old 04-22-2018, 06:49 PM   #1237
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yuik View Post
I am actively going to start trimming to get to 10-20% cash. Thinking about moving to utah and having more money in cash will make me feel better as oh shit money.
Deciding on what I should trim or dump.
Top holdings
- FB - 11%
- NFLX - 11%
- NVDA - 7.5%
- AMZN 7.5%
- MSFT - 7% (want to buy more)
- GOOG - 5.26%
APPL - 5.23%
Jazz - 4.91%
CRM - 5.22%
SQ - 4.29%
JPM - 3.72%
C - 3.51%
GS - 3.31%
Cash = 5%.
got tired after there.

some take aways. I own too much tech. Tech has grown much better than my non tech holdings like ABBV and BMY.
I'm a strict asset allocation guy and part of that is the very reason that you cite. IF you stick to it, it can help force you to sell high and buy low.

For example it seems counterintuitive as heck, but study after study done by economists has shown that mixing in 10% bonds to your portfolio consistently outperforms a 100% equity allocation.

The reason is the asset allocation forces you to sell bonds and buy stocks when rates are typically dropping, and BUY bonds and sell equities when rates are moving up again.

Seems simple enough, but it is amazing how people want to hang on to their winners AND their losers as once you sell out a losing position or slower growth position you are taking the hit, no more waiting for it to go back up.

So my recommendation would be to lighten up on tech, yes maybe add cash as bonds still are way pricey right now, but don't overlook super high quality blue chip dividend paying stocks. Sounds like you are young enough that you can take advantage of growth and longer time horizons dividend payers can offer.

You might also consider some equities w heavy exposure to one or more commodities like the oil cos or ADM or something.

Personally, I have been heavily overweighted in cash w a healthy chunk in PMs and 2nd Amemdment hard assets (lol) for past 1-2 years primarily because I have two kids I need to send to college with that first check not too far off.

So good luck and again good call on getting the hell out of that socialist paradise NJ. It's only going to get A LOT worse there vis a vis taxes etc.
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Old 04-23-2018, 08:51 AM   #1238
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Originally Posted by Jabes0623 View Post
Never a good idea to sell assets for ďoh shitĒ money.

You should have an emergency cash stash capable of covering 6-9 months of expenses. Thatís where your ďoh shitĒ money should come from.

If you do not have that emergency stash build it before you move.

My .02 anyway...
Yeah my income is good so in the next two months Iíll keep more cash.
And Iíll maybe dump half of he ethereum I have been mining into cash.

Right now I have super low expenses due to my girlfriend and I living with my divorced mother, Iíll typically just buy equities with the excess money I have each month rather than keep it in cash. And I have a laundry list of stocks I want to buy.

Just started a more robust China exposure. Baba and tencent
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Old 04-24-2018, 02:00 PM   #1239
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Wedge remains in place.
10 year treasury hit 3%--probably triggering algorithmic sell off.

Volume has been low. Not enough buyers.
Likely related to that wedge and the 10 year rate.

Still watching 2580 on the S&P.

2% downside possibly, if the base on the wedge holds.


Geopolitical and interest risk remains also.
Could change things either way.
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These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.
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Old 04-25-2018, 11:28 PM   #1240
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Still shocking to me how the DJIA keeps dicking all around 24K. It's like WWI trench warfare where you ke p fighting over the 50 meters
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Old 04-25-2018, 11:35 PM   #1241
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Still shocking to me how the DJIA keeps dicking all around 24K. It's like WWI trench warfare where you ke p fighting over the 50 meters
Consolidation pattern.

Treacherous market at the moment.

Hasn't been this ugly since the top in 2015-16.

Anyone not in should probably wait for this to be resolved.

I did add to a few positions today though. Not sure I won't regret it. We'll see. It wasn't much.
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These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.
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Old 04-30-2018, 09:26 PM   #1242
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Long SUN, nice quarterly dividend .85 cents/share, Long DFP, Flaherty and Crumrine blue chip fund , monthly dividend 14.8 cents/share. Long FFC another monthly blue chip dividend payer .11 cents/share or so. Small position in WPM, , quarterly dividend, and SILV, a Fidelity Junior silver miner Mutual fund with no commission on buys, quarterly dividend also. 1/3 . 1/3 in hard metal. 1/3 2A assets. Simple for me. Bond funds are long term corporate.
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Old 05-04-2018, 04:13 PM   #1243
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AAPL is still not done going down, IMHO.
Quite the rebound AAPL has had. Of course announcing a 100 billion $ buyback program will have that effect lol. Looks like thatís where the one time dividend payout Iíve been looking for is headed.

Damn glad I added a little when I did, wish I wouldíve add more. 20/20 hindsight. But MA is going basically blow for blow with AAPL these last few days, bob no doubt headed for $200+ this year now.

As I wrap up my week Iím a damn happy investor. Will gladly take a few more like this.
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Old 05-04-2018, 08:45 PM   #1244
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Crypto is on its way back up, what a nasty crash we had there
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Old 05-04-2018, 10:21 PM   #1245
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Wedge, or triangle, or whatever (seems to depend on who's drawing the lines....) remains in place.

We're getting closer to the apex.

Looking to me like it will be tech that decides this.
Not all that surprising.

I'm thinking that the trade negotiations with China will be the determinant.

In any event, the tech sector is closer to its apex for this formation than the overall market.

On the other hand, financials, which also seem attractive to me, have formed the dreaded head and shoulders formation though overall they have broken the neck line so it's not official....

Watch China, then watch tech...such is likely to go the overall market.....I expect....maybe....lol

We could break through or break down. Same as always, I guess.

Valuations are decent though.
Earnings have been excellent but almost every stock has sold off after great earnings reports.


AAPL
I had my son pick some up.
If I'd seen it hit 160 this week I'd have snagged some up also.
Too busy with work around the place this week. Snow FINALLY melted and I am Working my ass off around here dropping trees and such.
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Old 05-05-2018, 12:40 AM   #1246
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Originally Posted by drjarhead View Post
Wedge, or triangle, or whatever (seems to depend on who's drawing the lines....) remains in place.

We're getting closer to the apex.

Looking to me like it will be tech that decides this.
Not all that surprising.

I'm thinking that the trade negotiations with China will be the determinant.

In any event, the tech sector is closer to its apex for this formation than the overall market.

On the other hand, financials, which also seem attractive to me, have formed the dreaded head and shoulders formation though overall they have broken the neck line so it's not official....

Watch China, then watch tech...such is likely to go the overall market.....I expect....maybe....lol

We could break through or break down. Same as always, I guess.

Valuations are decent though.
Earnings have been excellent but almost every stock has sold off after great earnings reports.


AAPL
I had my son pick some up.
If I'd seen it hit 160 this week I'd have snagged some up also.
Too busy with work around the place this week. Snow FINALLY melted and I am Working my ass off around here dropping trees and such.
AAPL passed 180 today unless there is a market meltdown I donít think weíll see 160. But I concur itís a good buy in point.
Iíve been watching Sprint (S) to see how much lower it can go. There have been valuations issues of what the company is worth for the T-Mobile buyout. But if it goes below $4 per share Iím buying in with enthusiasm.
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Old 05-05-2018, 09:50 AM   #1247
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AAPL passed 180 today unless there is a market meltdown I donít think weíll see 160. But I concur itís a good buy in point.
Iíve been watching Sprint (S) to see how much lower it can go. There have been valuations issues of what the company is worth for the T-Mobile buyout. But if it goes below $4 per share Iím buying in with enthusiasm.
AAPL was down to $160 and change last Friday.

Warren Buffet's been buying up a lot of it recently, FWIW. He said so yesterday. He's been buying it for about a year now, IIRC.


Regardless, the market has been trading in this wedge for months now.
It goes up some, goes down some, but stays inside the wedge.
We're getting closer to the end though, obviously, but the market can still go down inside the wedge until there's a breakout either way.

FWIW, the QQQ (Nasdaq 100) did breakout to the upside yesterday. It was fairly decisive so that may portend a breakout to the upside for the overall market. We'll see if it all holds above trendline.

I'm going to stick with the trade negotiations being the major determinant.

With the QQQ going up like it did, some big money thinks it knows something. Retail investors like us get left behind on that sort of thing, unfortunately.

Govt actions remain the hardest thing to account for in my investing.
That's my experience, anyhow.
If someone has it figured out, LMK.
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Old 05-05-2018, 03:08 PM   #1248
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AAPL was down to $160 and change last Friday.

Warren Buffet's been buying up a lot of it recently, FWIW. He said so yesterday. He's been buying it for about a year now, IIRC.


Regardless, the market has been trading in this wedge for months now.
It goes up some, goes down some, but stays inside the wedge.
We're getting closer to the end though, obviously, but the market can still go down inside the wedge until there's a breakout either way.

FWIW, the QQQ (Nasdaq 100) did breakout to the upside yesterday. It was fairly decisive so that may portend a breakout to the upside for the overall market. We'll see if it all holds above trendline.

I'm going to stick with the trade negotiations being the major determinant.

With the QQQ going up like it did, some big money thinks it knows something. Retail investors like us get left behind on that sort of thing, unfortunately.

Govt actions remain the hardest thing to account for in my investing.
That's my experience, anyhow.
If someone has it figured out, LMK.
I saw that AAPL @ 160 last week but Iím in the process of moving & funds are tight & although I think itís a great in investment in near/mid term I just donít want to spread myself that thin unless I can get an exceptional deal.

Unless you know someone in close political circles itís extremely difficult to figure out how much the govít is effecting the market.
Perhaps if we went on the gold standard there would be less fuckery on their part.
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Old 05-30-2018, 10:28 AM   #1249
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Strong gravitational pull towards DJIA 24,000 continues ...

Periphery currencies are showing massive stress as the flight to the quality least dirty shirt in the laundry basket continues
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Old 05-30-2018, 12:26 PM   #1250
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Been adding MVO, APU, SNH and SBRA lately ... also Silver American Eagles.
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Old 05-30-2018, 11:51 PM   #1251
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Zero Hedge had a good article today or yesterday on how the premiums for certain collectible gold coins are at a real low. Sounded good, although as someone else in the comments pointed out, there is a good reason premiums are low as apparently Millenials are not buying in.

Further there is no guarantee that premiums won't stay stagnant or further decrease. Still and idea worth investigating especially if it's a low low prem like less than fifty bucks
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Old 06-06-2018, 12:20 AM   #1252
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Bought HD I like that.

Wondering if I should sell Abbv.

Cramer says yes but other sources say no and good articles say it’s oversold due to their massive pipeline even with the rev set back. Thoughts doc?
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Old 06-06-2018, 12:22 AM   #1253
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AAPL was down to $160 and change last Friday.

Warren Buffet's been buying up a lot of it recently, FWIW. He said so yesterday. He's been buying it for about a year now, IIRC.


Regardless, the market has been trading in this wedge for months now.
It goes up some, goes down some, but stays inside the wedge.
We're getting closer to the end though, obviously, but the market can still go down inside the wedge until there's a breakout either way.

FWIW, the QQQ (Nasdaq 100) did breakout to the upside yesterday. It was fairly decisive so that may portend a breakout to the upside for the overall market. We'll see if it all holds above trendline.

I'm going to stick with the trade negotiations being the major determinant.

With the QQQ going up like it did, some big money thinks it knows something. Retail investors like us get left behind on that sort of thing, unfortunately.

Govt actions remain the hardest thing to account for in my investing.
That's my experience, anyhow.
If someone has it figured out, LMK.
I donít know about predicting catalysts for government actions but companies that you like and know well (I love AWS for amazon , Microsoft due to
Azure, and Facebook), use these giant market moves to get in at a lower price.

Not exactly what you asked but this is how I play it.
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Old 06-07-2018, 09:49 AM   #1254
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DJIA is at 25,227, will it stick this time?

Capital flow analysts have picked up a lot of Euro money pouring in to the Dollar and U.S. blue chips in light of the ongoing cluster f@ck that is the Euro (see Italy, good for nationalists bad for Euro).

Institutional flows may be enough for the DJIA to finally break free of the 24K gravitational pull ...
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Old 06-07-2018, 11:13 AM   #1255
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DJIA is at 25,227, will it stick this time?

Capital flow analysts have picked up a lot of Euro money pouring in to the Dollar and U.S. blue chips in light of the ongoing cluster f@ck that is the Euro (see Italy, good for nationalists bad for Euro).

Institutional flows may be enough for the DJIA to finally break free of the 24K gravitational pull ...
I follow the SP and NAS more.

S&P going to 3000 +/-

That's based on the charts and the breakout of the triangle the chart was in.

I'm pretty long at this point. Well, long for me, anyhow.


Tony Dyer was on a couple of days ago and predicted S&P 3200 by the end of the year. That is pretty optimistic but doable.
Trade negotiations and the Nov election may be the major determinants at this point.
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Old 06-11-2018, 04:38 PM   #1256
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what are some thoughts on investing and speculating in hemp and marijuana related stocks?
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Old 06-11-2018, 04:58 PM   #1257
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Hemp just got a good decision and related settlement w the DEA. The DEA essentially will b backing off on guidance relating to hemp oils that may contain CBD or trace amounts of THC.

Plus Trump's announcement can only help shore up support. I also was just reading that 67% of persons polled by Gallup now support full legalization. Support for legalizination of medical is in the 90s.

It may indeed be time to looking into this sector a lot of ways to play it
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Old 06-11-2018, 10:51 PM   #1258
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what are some thoughts on investing and speculating in hemp and marijuana related stocks?
No reason not to have at least a small stake, or two, given the way the wind is blowing. Just understand that any entirely ďpotĒ stock is pure speculation.

If you want to get a little piece of the pot action but not go whole hog the best side plays on this seem to companies like Scottís Miracle Grow (SMG), which has taken quite a beating lately, & could be viewed as something of a bargain. Though with a PE over 20 thatís a bit of stretch.

The other obvious side plays are the pharmaceutical companies. IMO this is the safest & best option currently available to those looking to dabble. Look into Abbvie Inc. as theyíve had a marijuana related drug on the market for several years already.

It should also be noted Canada is very near full legalization, so it may be wise to look north of the border for the best current pot stock opportunities.
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Old 06-25-2018, 01:12 PM   #1259
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Looks like DJIA 24K is back in sight as Dow is at 24,200.

What is up w Dow 24K?
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Old 06-26-2018, 11:46 AM   #1260
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tariffs, trade wars, rising interest rates, flattening yield curve

will the pessimists finally have their long-awaited recession? we certainly seem to have enough catalysts for some economic cooling
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