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Old 03-20-2017, 04:54 PM   #771
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Guns and butter. That is all. Learn it, believe it, profit.
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Old 03-20-2017, 05:12 PM   #772
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Originally Posted by Rev06 View Post
Martin Armstrong.

snip
I would be very wary of trusting anyone who has spent 11 years and 7 months of his life in federal prison

for those unaware, this fellow was running a pyramid scheme that used new investors' money to conceal losses on current investors' positions. the bank he had partnered with was producing falsified statements to keep clients from realizing that they had lost money. $600+ million was ultimately returned to investors

watch your back when dealing with felons...
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Old 03-20-2017, 05:37 PM   #773
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Well the story of that case was actually quite complicated. A lot of political ass covering as a well connected bank (Republic National) was the actual entity that made a disastrous series of trades and or absconded w th money. Also conveniently, the Chair of Republic was killed in a mysterious fire in his apartment just after the missing money was discovered.

Also, The time he served was NOT for any underlying fraud, it was for contempt of court because he would not agree to a plea deal and the court thought he was holding out on hidden assets. To this day it is the longest federal sentence ever served in the U.S. for contempt of court.

But yeah, I hear you RS believe me. I actually followed the case closely at the time, because it was in my field of expertise.

It's important to note that this guy is not currently managing any assets. He used to manage $3 Trillion and was called upon by many major GOVERNMENTS in the world for currency and commodities advice. He also correctly called the 1998 Russian financial crisis and I think the Asian financial crisis.


Today, he sells reports on various markets primarily to institutional investors and holds a couple of seminars a year at $5K a pop I think and they always are oversubscribed. Too rich for my blood.

Fortunately, he dribbles out free tid bits each day in emails and this is what I have scooped up.

At the end of the day, assuming he were a convicted fraudster, if his market calls are right and making you money or saving your assets from destruction, do you really care?

I suppose his advice is worth what I pay for it.
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Old 03-20-2017, 09:20 PM   #774
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The martin armstrong guy is interesting, not sure i would ever pay for a set of stock tips, because if they are correct enough they should just use options and maximize their profit without anyone else following.

But i guess cnbc and bloomberg do the same shit they just sell adds vs selling a subscription.

I saw he doesnt believe in man made climate change based on wikipedia. Can you sum that up in a sentence or two? Is it along the lines of the researchers proving it have their funding grants tied to showing evidence of climate change thus the incentive to cherry pick?
I would assume a guy like that has quantitative reasons behind most of his opinions.

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I bought more AMGN on the open.

Price down substantially on their REPATHA study.

Market didn't care for the results, thinking benefit wasn't substantial enough to get insurance companies to pay for this VERY expensive drug.

MO is that the results are good. Excellent, even, and with improved benefits over time.

That's just MO, however.

Also of note, much insider acquisition in the past month.


Just letting you guys know I bought more.

You have to watch the price action if you're interested. Very volatile this AM.
One trade I wished i could undo was dumping Amgen in to buy JUno and Halo which hasnt done much (i was looking for higher upside).

Though Jazz Pharm has been treating me well and I am glad I doubled down in 2014 getting rid of Bristol Meyers for it.

I feel like buying amgen at any price will have me up in 2-4 years, but I am hoping for a better entry point. And I still think goldman will be my next buy on a pullback. I am pretty glad how the i-banks didnt run up after confirming the double rate hike (I think people didnt like how they didnt change it to 3).
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Old 03-20-2017, 09:29 PM   #775
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AMGN might go down some more. I'd say it has a 50% chance of dipping below $158.

I'll buy more if it goes down more.

It's a pretty solid stock IMO....

....but I've been wrong before.

Well, not often really, but I tend to buy early and sell early.
I've given up on some I was convinced were ready to soar only to find out I got out too early, losing patience on stocks that had some sweet gains.
Those were really my biggest mistakes and I still do it sometimes.


You guys should watch CELG for a good entry point also.
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Old 03-20-2017, 11:11 PM   #776
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On climate change he has tracked solar cycles as they relate to many commodities prices and even plague and war cycles because of crops failing.

Anyway apparently we are entering into a "Maunder Minimum" which is a solar cooling event essentially. His economic cycles work was predicting it and he became interested and sure enough ice core samples and other data demonstrated a natural non man-made warm cool pattern.

Scientists who have a stake in the climate change racket tried to suppress this and other data but it slowly leaked out which resulted in 1) changing it from global warming to climate change and 2) a new theory that global warming had "paused".

Since Trump has come in more real data is being released. I saw something a while back about NASA stating that there is no evidence of global warming.

Basically it is a big scheme to raise taxes which ties back in to the gov over taxation and corruption cycles.

Same goes for crackdown on use of cash in EU and in India and even here w civil asset forfeiture. It is about tracking down every last dime for taxation.
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Old 03-21-2017, 02:24 PM   #777
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Originally Posted by drjarhead View Post
AMGN might go down some more. I'd say it has a 50% chance of dipping below $158.

I'll buy more if it goes down more.

It's a pretty solid stock IMO....

....but I've been wrong before.

Well, not often really, but I tend to buy early and sell early.
I've given up on some I was convinced were ready to soar only to find out I got out too early, losing patience on stocks that had some sweet gains.
Those were really my biggest mistakes and I still do it sometimes.


You guys should watch CELG for a good entry point also.
I was lucky enough to buy celgene in 2012 because I worked at a building where celgene had a floor or two and the people always seemed happy.

I then checked their glassdoor reviews and people seemed happy with the company which lead me to pull the trigger.

one other reason I want to buy goldman is because even though they work brutal hours people still enjoy the company and the mission according to glassdoor reviews so I think they may have the work ethic and the loyalty to keep out performing their peers.

I bought jpm and citi first because the value seemed to be too good compared to goldman.

Quote:
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On climate change he has tracked solar cycles as they relate to many commodities prices and even plague and war cycles because of crops failing.

Anyway apparently we are entering into a "Maunder Minimum" which is a solar cooling event essentially. His economic cycles work was predicting it and he became interested and sure enough ice core samples and other data demonstrated a natural non man-made warm cool pattern.

Scientists who have a stake in the climate change racket tried to suppress this and other data but it slowly leaked out which resulted in 1) changing it from global warming to climate change and 2) a new theory that global warming had "paused".

Since Trump has come in more real data is being released. I saw something a while back about NASA stating that there is no evidence of global warming.

Basically it is a big scheme to raise taxes which ties back in to the gov over taxation and corruption cycles.

Same goes for crackdown on use of cash in EU and in India and even here w civil asset forfeiture. It is about tracking down every last dime for taxation.
very interesting stuff. By any chance does this guy have any movies about him? I feel like they would be a good watch.

I agree on the last point and am starting to like it.
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Old 03-21-2017, 02:43 PM   #778
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Quote:
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Same goes for crackdown on use of cash in EU and in India and even here w civil asset forfeiture. It is about tracking down every last dime for theft by parasites who refuse to work and contribute to the GDP.
Fixed it for you.
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Old Yesterday, 06:38 AM   #779
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Big day today boys. The House votes on Ryancare. I suspect it will pass but even if it doesn't I don't see that triggering a major selloff. The real question, in my mind anyway, is how wide a margin does it have to pass by to trigger another run?

I'm thinking it will pass but by the slimmest of margins & not really have too much effect, may even trigger a little selling, but I've been wrong before.

I have no idea why Trump didn't tackle tax reform first & then go after the ACA. That's the low hanging fruit here. Even if it didn't pass the conservatives could bash the (D) & RINO's over the head with it during the mid-term elections & maybe steal a seat or two. Now we're headed for political quagmire & therefor likely market quagmire as well.
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Old Yesterday, 09:07 AM   #780
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He went for this first to take advantage of the first 100 day honeymoon period as he probably figured this would be a harder sell than the tax package.

Now it is all at risk though. We'll see.
McConnell says they will get it through.
If the American People don't like the resulting law it will also impair his ability to get things done down the line.


For today,
I expect slight rise on the open, gradual sell off going into the vote, then it will depend.

Down vote > sell off

Up vote > rally


That's my call on it.

It's all about Trump now.
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Old Yesterday, 09:26 AM   #781
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What they need to do on Ryancare is delay any major negative changes until after the elections, both of em, just like the Dems did.
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Old Yesterday, 10:14 AM   #782
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I hate to see "us" stoop to their level. However, it's unthinkable that 0bama could get essentially his entire agenda shoved through, even with (R) majorities in Congress, & Trump could be stopped dead in his tracks in his first 100 days with (R) majorities in both houses of Congress. It's time to do what must be done, Trump has to win this.

This is the investing thread so I don't want to get too far off the rails here but IMO Ryancare is a piss poor attempt at repeal & replace. Rip 0bamacare up completely & then get the .gov out of the insurance/healthcare business entirely.

And I'm going to say it again, Trump should've stared with tax cuts! Damnit.
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Old Yesterday, 05:01 PM   #783
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Just sold Juno today I lost 60% on it.

Not sure if I should sell Fitbit too what are your thoughts?

I plan on buying Goldman and then saving up till I have 10-20% in cash before I consider buying again.
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I hate to see "us" stoop to their level. However, it's unthinkable that 0bama could get essentially his entire agenda shoved through, even with (R) majorities in Congress, & Trump could be stopped dead in his tracks in his first 100 days with (R) majorities in both houses of Congress. It's time to do what must be done, Trump has to win this.

This is the investing thread so I don't want to get too far off the rails here but IMO Ryancare is a piss poor attempt at repeal & replace. Rip 0bamacare up completely & then get the .gov out of the insurance/healthcare business entirely.

And I'm going to say it again, Trump should've stared with tax cuts! Damnit.
I thought they already appealed Obamacare? Does it not get repealed till they replace it?

What would your legislation be? I feel like the 26 year old kid thing isn't awful and not fucking people with preexisting conditions.
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Old Yesterday, 11:37 PM   #784
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Does anyone know if I am trying to get my income under the Roth IRA income limit so I can contribute the max to my Roth IRA 5500$, the things that I can deduct to bring my total income down is my hsa and any pre tax 401k contributions right? Is there anything else I can do to bring my income down to make sure I'm under the amount to fully contribute to my Roth IRA ?

Thanks
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Old Today, 12:56 AM   #785
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Reading through all of this is mind numbing. I've never talked with anyone who knows anything about investments, so all of this is so foreign to me. I really do need to come up with some sort of investment plan, but need to start really small just to see how it all works.

Any pointers for a new guy in the way of where to learn more, how to pick stocks, understanding trends, etc?
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This is my first post here. You, sir, sound like a true prick.
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Old Today, 01:07 AM   #786
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Does anyone know if I am trying to get my income under the Roth IRA income limit so I can contribute the max to my Roth IRA 5500$, the things that I can deduct to bring my total income down is my hsa and any pre tax 401k contributions right? Is there anything else I can do to bring my income down to make sure I'm under the amount to fully contribute to my Roth IRA ?

Thanks
Talk to your CPA about a backdoor Roth IRA contribution
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Old Today, 01:13 AM   #787
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Reading through all of this is mind numbing. I've never talked with anyone who knows anything about investments, so all of this is so foreign to me. I really do need to come up with some sort of investment plan, but need to start really small just to see how it all works.

Any pointers for a new guy in the way of where to learn more, how to pick stocks, understanding trends, etc?
Start here https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/

You can also work with one of the hundreds of thousands of people calling themselves "financial advisors" these days, but many of them will turn you away since you don't have enough savings yet for them to justify working with you. You'll have to either pay them an hourly fee or a huge upfront commission to make it worth their while. Your CPA can help you with choosing what type of accounts to contribute to but he can't really advise you on investments
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Old Today, 04:23 AM   #788
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Start here https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/

You can also work with one of the hundreds of thousands of people calling themselves "financial advisors" these days, but many of them will turn you away since you don't have enough savings yet for them to justify working with you. You'll have to either pay them an hourly fee or a huge upfront commission to make it worth their while. Your CPA can help you with choosing what type of accounts to contribute to but he can't really advise you on investments
Thank you sir for the timely advice, and honest assessment. I will definitely be looking into it. Much appreciated.
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This is my first post here. You, sir, sound like a true prick.
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